Even as the pair’s decline off the 1.3081 level, its Nov 25’08 high saw some respite Tuesday rallying higher, as long as its ST falling trendline drawn from the 1.3298 high(Oct 30’08 high) or even the 1.3081 resistance level is not invalidated, EUR should likely push towards YTD low at 1.2330.Taking out the latter will resume its medium term decline now on hold towards the 1.2134 level, its .50 Ret (its 0.8231-1.6038 high, monthly chart) and later the 1.1827 level, its Mar’06 low.

On the upside, resistance is initially seen at the 1.2814 level, its Nov 19’08 high with a break of there setting the stage for a run at its Nov 25 & 05’08 highs at 1.3081/1.3116 and then the 1.3298 level.EUR still retains its broader sideways trading range between the 1.2330 and the 1.3298 levels and meaningful directional moves remain on hold until a break either way occurs. On the whole, with the present range trading seen as corrective of its declines off the 1.6038 high, lower prices are expected on completing that correction.

Support Comments
1.2484 Oct’06 low
1.2330/24 Oct 28’08 low/Jan/April’06 highs
1.2134 .50 Ret (0.8231-1.6038 rally)

Resistance Comments
1.2814 Nov 19’08 high
1.3058/05 Oct 23’06 high/.618 Ret (0.8231-1.6038 rally, monthly chart)
1.3259/98 Oct 30’08 high/Oct 10’08 low

US Nonfarm Employment Change comes this Friday at 12:30 GMT.

If actual data comes inline with market forecast:

Expectations for this month reveal that the Non-Farm Employment Change figures will drop by 73K from July. Such a result, should it take place, will be the biggest drop in employment numbers that the U.S economy has experienced since April of this year. Previous surveys have shown that publications that reflect a significant contraction in the job sector had a radical impact on the USD, and concluded in a sudden downtrend. Considering that the survey has delivered negative figures for several consecutive months now, another sharp drop could signal a temporary halt in the Dollar’s bullishness, and the USD could be facing an unfortunate weekend, causing the EUR/USD pair to rise back toward levels around 1.4700

If actual data surprise with bullishness

If the actual figure is higher than forecasted, traders are likely to see the USD appreciate against other majors. Currently, investors are setting their positions on the USD based on the assumption that by the end of the week, the USD should face a sharp bearish movement. However, in case that the survey will deliver better figures than expected, such as 40K drop instead of the forecasted 73K drop, investors will be compelled to reevaluate their strategies, and go long on the USD. In this turn of events, the Dollar might receive an extra boost that will broaden its bullish voyage, and the EUR/USD could drop toward levels of 1.4350, breaking what would be a 9 month record.

Make sure you are prepared for Friday, otherwise do not trade, wait for the “craziness” to die out.

Truly yours,
Practical Trader

This section is currently closed due to changing the concept of delivering daily news.

Now daily market comments can be found at http://forex-trading-signals.net/ 

On my website, I’ll continue analysing the market, but I’ll do it on a weekly basis.

Also collection of resources “Forex Education Video” will be running as well.

Truly yours,

Practical Trader

GBPUSD pair has reversed as expected during previous weeks.

Now, while now bulls are trying to bring the pair higher again it looks that they are running out of steam and expectations are for the pair maximum swing high around 1.9770 area.

There with Fibonacci resistance point and trend line resistance GBPUSD should descend again, where we will be looking for the opposite side of the triangle to be broken.

If so, there will be yet another retest of 1.9350 area after which the targets will be set to 1.9100.

Forex trading by practical trader.